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ASCE Press - The Great Civil Engineering Overhaul, 2024
- The Great Civil Engineering Overhaul
- Contents
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Chapter 1: What's Past Is No Longer Prologue [Go to Page]
- Global Warming and Its Consequences
- Climate-Related Assumptions Are No Longer Reliable [Go to Page]
- Hurricane Sandy (October 2012). Cost: $65 billion, 159 deaths
- Camp Fire, Northern California (November 2018). Cost: $16.5 billion, 85 deaths
- Midwestern US Floods (January-March 2019). Cost: $10.8 billion, 3 deaths
- Similar Problems, Other Places
- The European Heat Wave of 2003
- When Cape Town Almost Hit Day Zero
- The Past Is No Longer Prologue
- A Matter of Ethical and Moral Responsibility … and Liability
- New Levels of Uncertainty
- Reduce Carbon Emissions to Net Zero By 2050
- The Hazards and Risks of Business as Usual [Go to Page]
- Changes in Scale
- Is Achieving Net-Zero Carbon by 2050 Possible?
- Is There Hope?
- What Needs to Be Done [Go to Page]
- Enhance Infrastructure Resilience
- Decrease Exposure to Climate Stressor Hazards
- Reduce the Source of Climate Stressor Extremes: GHG Emissions
- How the Civil Engineering Industry Should Respond
- The Purpose and Design of This Book
- References
- Additional References (Not Cited)
- Chapter 2: Civil Infrastructure and the Assumption of Stationarity [Go to Page]
- What is Civil Infrastructure?
- Why Is Civil Infrastructure Important? [Go to Page]
- Civil Infrastructure and National Competitiveness
- The Work of Civil Engineers
- Infrastructure Projects: Components, Requirements, Relationships, and Dependencies
- Application of Codes and Standards
- Climate Variables, Climate Stressors, and Climate-Derived Variables
- Taking Climate Stressors into Account in Infrastructure Design [Go to Page]
- Climate Stressors in Infrastructure Design
- Climate Stressor Variable Range of Values
- Forms of Infrastructure Degradation
- Knock-on Effects [Go to Page]
- Compounding
- Propagating
- Reinforcing
- How Knock-On Effects Have Been Handled
- Types of Failure [Go to Page]
- Catastrophic Failure
- Resilient Failure
- Infrastructure Resiliency
- Designing Infrastructure Assuming Conditions of Stationarity
- Using Climate-Derived Variables
- Stationarity Worked … At Least Until Now
- References
- Chapter 3: Climate Change, Stationarity, and Sustainability: How Are They Connected? [Go to Page]
- The Foundational Assumption of Stationarity
- Is Our Form of Economic Development Sustainable? [Go to Page]
- The Brundtland Commission Report
- Are We Sustainable?
- What Are the "Needs"
of Present and Future Generations? [Go to Page]
- How Does Society Meet Those Needs?
- Sustainability: A Simple Example
- Financial and Natural Capital: What's the Connection?
- Natural Capital Resources and Flows [Go to Page]
- Abiotic Resources and Flows
- Structure, Condition, and Circulation
- Biotic Systems: Resources and Ecosystem Service Flows
- Resources and Ecosystem Service Flows: Example
- Question: How Did We Get to this Point in Human Development?
- Answer: Human Ingenuity! We Created New Forms of Capital
- Putting It All Together
- Is Society's Approach to Development Sustainable? [Go to Page]
- Human Well-Being: What Has Been Achieved?
- What Is the State of the Earth's Resources and Ecosystems?
- Ecological Footprint: Ecosystem Demand versus Availability
- The Sustainability Quadrant: Where Nations Need to Be
- Moving Toward the Sustainability Quadrant [Go to Page]
- Developed Nations: High and Very High Income
- Developing Nations: Lower and Upper Middle Income
- Underdeveloped Nations: Low Income
- Global Efforts to Reduce Poverty
- References
- Additional References (Not Cited)
- Chapter 4: The Consequences of Unsustainable Development [Go to Page]
- Human Development Progress and Its Consequences
- What About Natural Capital? [Go to Page]
- The IPAT Equation
- Climbing the Heat Ladder
- Fossil Fuel Use and Its Consequences [Go to Page]
- A "New
Normal" of Disasters
- The Impacts of Business-As-Usual
- A New Sense of Urgency
- Opportunities in a Low-Carbon Economy
- Impacts on Civil Infrastructure Design [Go to Page]
- Changes in Probability Distributions of Climate Stressor Variables
- Additional Hazards and Risks Outside of Historical Operating Experience
- Effects on Infrastructure Assets
- Infrastructure Design Challenges in a Changing Climate
- References
- Chapter 5: Responding to a Changing Climate [Go to Page]
- The Work Ahead [Go to Page]
- The Scale of the Response Required
- Barriers to an Effective Response
- Responding to a Changing Climate: The Details [Go to Page]
- Climate Change Mitigation
- Climate Change Adaptation
- Conclusion
- References
- Additional References (Not Cited)
- Chapter 6: Civil Infrastructure and Deep Uncertainty [Go to Page]
- A Framework for Infrastructure Planning and Design Decision Making
- Levels of Uncertainty
- Engineers Have Always Managed Deep Uncertainties
- Global Climate Change and Deep Uncertainty
- Approaches to Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty [Go to Page]
- Robust Decision Making
- Dynamic Adaptive Planning
- Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways
- Information-Gap Decision Theory (IG or Info-Gap)
- Engineering Options Analysis
- Conclusion
- References
- Additional References (Not Cited)
- Chapter 7: A Proposed Dynamic Adaptive Planning Methodology [Go to Page]
- Introduction
- Modified Dynamic Adaptive Planning: A Summary
- Modified Dynamic Adaptive Planning: The Details [Go to Page]
- Step I: Set the Stage
- Step II: Assemble the Initial Plan
- Step III: Improve the Robustness of the Project Alternatives
- Step IV: Evaluate and Select the Best Alternative
- Step V: Develop the Monitoring System
- Step VI: Prepare the Responses
- Step VII: Deliver the Project
- Step VIII: Operate the Project
- Conclusion
- References
- Additional References (Not Cited)
- Chapter 8: A Proposed Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways Methodology [Go to Page]
- Introduction
- Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways Terminology, Types, and Characteristics
- Modified Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways: A Summary [Go to Page]
- Setting the Scope, Objectives, and Limitations
- Types of Pathways
- Pathway Elements
- Pathway Objectives: Getting on Track and Staying on Track
- Pathway Characteristics
- Determining and Evaluating Routes for Achieving Objectives
- Evaluation and Selection of Promising Routes
- Modified Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways: The Details [Go to Page]
- Step 1. Describe the Problem
- Step 2. Analyze the Problem
- Step 3. Determine Possible Adaptation Pathways
- Step 4a. Evaluate Pathways
- Step 4b. Reassess
- Step 5. Assemble Pathways into Routes
- Step 6. Select the Most Promising Routes
- Step 7. Improve Plan Robustness, Resilience
- Step 8. Select a Dynamic Adaptive Plan
- Step 9. Implement the Plan
- Step 10. Monitor and Respond
- Conclusion
- References
- Additional References (Not Cited)
- Chapter 9: Preparing for an Uncertain Future [Go to Page]
- Climate Disasters Continue
- The Tragedy of the Horizon
- Shifting from Intent to Action [Go to Page]
- COP 21 and the Paris Agreement
- Progress through Global Climate Action [Go to Page]
- Tracking and Validating Credible Climate Action Progress
- Climate Action Pathways
- Rallying Support: Climate Ambition Alliance-Race to Zero
- What the United States Is Doing [Go to Page]
- ASCE 73-23: Standard Practice for Sustainable Infrastructure
- How Civil Engineers Can Make a Difference
- Can Engineers Respond Effectively? [Go to Page]
- An Extended Role for Engineers?
- Closing Comments
- References
- Additional References (Not Cited)
- APPENDIX A: Climate Stressor Effects by Infrastructure Category
- APPENDIX B Envision Sustainable Infrastructure
Rating System [Go to Page]
- Quality of Life
- Leadership
- Resource Allocation
- Natural World
- Climate and Resilience
- APPENDIX C Robustness Matrix
- Index
- About-the-author
[Go to Page]
